The Leading Indicators Index is a composite index based on 12 economic indicators, that is designed to predict the future direction of the economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.
The balance figures are obtained by deducting the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive answers. The positive balance figure for unemployment means that unemployment is estimated to go up. The consumer confidence indicator is the average of the balance figures for four questions
concerning the next 12 months: own and Finlands economy, households saving possibilities and unemployment (with changed sign). The balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and 100.
Confidence indicator is a measure of the mood of consumers or businesses. It is usually based on a survey during which respondents rate their opinion on different issues concerning current and future conditions. There are many kinds of confidence indicators as institutions measuring them use different questions, sizes of samples or frequency of publications.
EK business tendency surveys are part of the EU s harmonised system of business surveys. The surveys are carried out between the 1st and 25th of each month. Industrial confidence indicator is calculated from the responses of manufacturing executives to three questions: production expectations in the next few months, order books as well as (-) finished goods inventories compared to normal.
Japan's Composite index of coincident indicators measures current economic
conditions. For the main purpose of measuring the amplitude of the fluctuations
of economic activities, the composite indexes are constructed by aggregating the
percentage changes of the selected series. They are represented with the average
of their 1995 values as 100.
The coincident index consists of the following components:
- Index of industrial production (mining and manufacturing);
- Index of consumption of raw materials (manufacturing);
- Large industrial power consumption;
- Index of capacity utilization ratio (manufacturing);
- Index of non-scheduled worked hours;
- Index of producer's shipment (investment goods);
- Sales at department stores (percent change from the previous year);
- Index of sales in wholesale trade (percent change from the previous year);
- Operating profits (all industries);
- Index of sales in small and medium sized enterprises (manufacturing);
- Effective job offer rate (excluding new school graduates).
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda (March 2013) is to speak. As head of the BOJ which sets short term interest rates, he has a major influence over the value of the JPY. Traders watch his speeches closely as they are often used to drop subtle hints regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
Retail sales data represents total consumer purchase from retail stores. It provides valuable information about consumer spending which makes up the consumption part of GDP.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the DKK , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the DKK.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Housing loans include loans to households with collateral in the form of single-family dwellings, condominiums and tenant-owned apartments.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the SEK , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the SEK.
M3 Money Supply measures the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks. An increasing supply of money leads to additional spending, which in turn leads to inflation.
Private Loans measures the change in the total value of new loans issued to consumers and businesses in the private sector.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR,while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the TWD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the TWD.
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods sand services, from and to Non-Eu countries, over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Private Loans measures the change in the total value of new loans issued to non financial corporations. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR,while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.
A measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care. The CPI is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them; the goods are weighted according to their importance. Changes in CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the average yield on the Bubill auctioned.
German Bubills have a maturity of up to 2 years. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital.
The yield on the Bubill represents the return an investor will receive by holding the treasury for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the MXN, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the MXN.
The Economic Activity Index provides an early estimate for real gross domestic (GDP) performance in Mexico.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the MXN, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the MXN.
The Economic Activity Index provides an early estimate for real gross domestic (GDP) performance in Mexico.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the MXN, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the MXN.
Trade balance, called also net export, is the difference between the value of country's exports and imports, over a period of time. A positive balance (trade surplus) means that exports exceed imports, a negativeone means the opposite. Positive trade balance illustrates high competitiveness of country's economy. This strengthens investors' interest in the local currency, appreciating its exchange rate.
The Focus Market Report provides weekly mean market expectations for inflation over following month, 12 months, and following year as well as expectations for Selic target rate, real GDP growth, net public sector debt/GDP, industrial production growth, current account, and trade balance, collected from over 130 banks, brokers, and funds managers.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde (November 2019 - October 2027) is to speak. As head of the ECB, which sets short term interest rates, she has a major influence over the value of the euro. Traders watch her speeches closely as they are often used to drop subtle hints regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts.
Her comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member (September 2007 - December 2007, 2009 and 2011) Charles Evans is to speak. FOMC members are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate and their speeches are closely watched for indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Bank Lending measures the change in the total value of outstanding bank loans issued to consumers and businesses. Borrowing and spending are closely correlated with consumer confidence.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the BRL , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the BRL.
Manufacturers new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircrafts. Nondefense capital goods include among other things: small arms; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; turbines, generators and other power transmission equipment; electronic computers; communications equipment; heavy duty trucks; office and institutional furniture; and medical materials and supplies.
The Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories, and Orders survey provides broad- based, monthly statistical data on economic conditions in the domestic manufacturing sector.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
New orders measure the value of orders received in a given period of time. They are legally binding contracts between a consumer and a producer for delivering goods and services. New orders indicate future industrial output and production requirements.The Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey provides broad-based, monthly statistical data on economic conditions in the domestic manufacturing sector. There are 89 separately tabulated industry categories in the M3 survey. These categories are groupings of the 473 manufacturing industries as defined in the 1997 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Manual. The monthly M3 estimates are based on information obtained from most manufacturing companies with $500 million or more in annual shipments. In order to strengthen the sample coverage in individual industry categories, the survey includes selected smaller companies. Value of Shipments - The value of shipments data in the M3 survey represents net selling values, f.o.b. plant, after discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges and excise taxes.
French BTF bills have maturities of up to 1 year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital.
The yield on the BTF represents the return an investor will receive by holding the treasury for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
French BTF bills have maturities of up to 1 year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital.
The yield on the BTF represents the return an investor will receive by holding the treasury for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
French BTF bills have maturities of up to 1 year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital.
The yield on the BTF represents the return an investor will receive by holding the treasury for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state factory activity. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month. Survey responses are used to calculate an index for each indicator. Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When the share of firms reporting an increase exceeds the share of firms reporting a decrease, the index will be greater than zero, suggesting the indicator has increased over the prior month. If the share of firms reporting a decrease exceeds the share reporting an increase, the index will be below zero,suggesting the indicator has decreased over the prior month. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase is equal to the number of firms reporting a decrease.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey (Mar 2020 - Mar 2028) is to speak. As head of the BOE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) which controls short term interest rates, Bailey has more influence over sterling's value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements for clues regarding future monetary policy.
His comments may spark a short-term positive or negative trend.
Fabio Panetta, member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, is set to speak. His speeches often contain indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the yield on the Treasury Note auctioned.
U.S. Treasury Notes have maturities of two to ten years. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Note represents the return an investor will receive by holding the note for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the rate on the Treasury Bill auctioned.
U.S. Treasury Bills have maturities of a few days to one year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Bill represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bill for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the rate on the Treasury Bill auctioned.
U.S. Treasury Bills have maturities of a few days to one year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Bill represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bill for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the yield on the Treasury Note auctioned.
U.S. Treasury Notes have maturities of two to ten years. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Note represents the return an investor will receive by holding the note for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the ARS, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the ARS.
The Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the KRW, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the KRW.
The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the Bank of Japan's policy setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates.
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
