Construction Work Done measures the change in the total value of completed construction projects. It provides an early indication of trends in building and engineering construction activity. The data is an estimate, based on a survey of approximately 80% of the value of both building and engineering work done during the quarter.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
The Trimmed Mean Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the most volatile 30% of items. This data helps illustrate underlying inflation trends.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.
The Weighted mean is calculated using the quarterly price changes of all CPI components, with the annual rates based on compounded quarterly calculations.
The Weighted mean is calculated using the quarterly price changes of all CPI components, with the annual rates based on compounded quarterly calculations.
The Weighted mean is calculated using the quarterly price changes of all CPI components, with the annual rates based on compounded quarterly calculations.
Monthly CPI Indicator measures monthly changes in the price of a of goods and services which account for a high proportion of expenditure by the CPI population group (i.e. metropolitan households).
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD,
while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate statement is the primary tool the panel uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of the vote on interest rates, discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.
A more dovish than expected statement could be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD, while a more hawkish than expected statement could be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) quarterly Monetary Policy Statement outlines how the bank will achieve its inflation targets, how it proposes to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement's release.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) press conference looks at the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, the overall economic outlook, inflation and offers insights into future monetary policy decisions.
The Leading Indicators Index is a composite index based on 12 economic indicators, that is designed to predict the future direction of the economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the SGD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the SGD.
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the SGD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the SGD.
The deficit or surplus is defined as revenue (plus grants received) less expenditure (less lending minus repayments). Surplus refers to the excess of total government revenues over total expenditures while deficit refers to the excess of total government expenditures over total revenues.
Measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy. The BoJ usually pays more attention to the core inflation data.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NOK.
GDP measures summary value of goods and services generated in a relevant country or region. A region's gross domestic product, or GDP, is one of the ways for measuring the size of its economy.
Expenditure approach - Total expenditures on all finished goods and services produced within the economy.
Calculation:
GDP using the expenditure approach is derived as the sum of all final expenditures, changes in inventories and exports of goods and services less imports of goods and services.
Market influence of GDP:
Unexpectedly high quarterly GDP growth is perceived to be potentially inflationary if the economy is close to full capacity; this, in turn, causes bond prices to drop and yields and interest rates to rise.
Where the stock market is concerned on one side higher than expected growth leads to higher profits and that's good for the stock market. On the other, it may increase expected inflation and lead to higher interest rates that are bad for the stock market.
The Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Expectations Index rates the relative six-month economic outlook for Switzerland. On the index, a level above zero indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. It is a leading indicator of economic health.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed persons expressed as a percentage of the labour force. The unemployment rate for a particular age/sex group is the number of unemployed in that group expressed as a percentage of the labour force for that group. The Central Statistical Office, GUS, revised its jobless figures starting in December 2003, after a national census showed a drop in the number of people employed in agriculture.A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the PLN , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the PLN.
The PMI Report on Manufacturing is a monthly publication, researched and published by Markit. It is based on a survey of business executives in the reporting country's private sector manufacturing companies and is designed to provide the most up-to-date picture of business conditions in the private manufacturing sector.The survey covers industrial sectors based on Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) groups; Chemicals, Electrical, Food/Drink, Mechanical Engineering, Metals, Textiles, Timber/Paper, Transport, Other. Each response received is weighted according to the size of the company to which the
questionnaire refers and the contribution to total manufacturing output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. This therefore ensures that replies from larger companies have a greater impact on the final index numbers than replies from small companies.
The Financial Stability Review is published twice a year and provides an overview of potential risks to financial stability in the euro area. It aims to promote awareness in the financial industry and among the public of euro area financial stability issues.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the average yield on the BOT auctioned.
Italian BOT bills have maturities of one year or less. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital.
The yield on the BOT represents the return an investor will receive by holding the treasury for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the average yield on the Bund auctioned. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital.
The yield on the Bund represents the return an investor will receive by holding the treasury for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
Monetary aggregates, known also as "money supply", is the quantity of currency available within the economy to purchase goods and services. M3 is a broad monetary aggregate that includes all physical currency circulating in the economy (banknotes and coins), operational deposits in central bank, money in current accounts, saving accounts, money market deposits, certificates of deposit, all other deposits and repurchase agreements. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the INR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the INR.
Bank Lending measures the change in the total value of outstanding bank loans issued to consumers and businesses. Borrowing and spending are closely correlated with consumer confidence.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the BRL , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the BRL.
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Mortgage Applications measures the change in the number of new applications for mortgages backed by the MBA during the reported week.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Monetary aggregates, known also as "money supply", is the quantity of currency available within the economy to purchase goods and services. Depending on the degree of liquidity chosen to define an asset as money, various monetary aggregates are distinguished: M0, M1, M2, M3, M4, etc. Not all of them are used by every country. Note that methodology of calculating money supply varies between countries. M2 is a monetary aggregate that includes all physical currency circulating in the economy (banknotes and coins), operational deposits in central bank, money in current accounts, saving accounts, money market deposits and small certificates of deposit. Excess money supply growth potentially can cause inflation and generate fears that the government may tighten money growth by allowing the interest rates to rise which in turn, lowers future prics.
MBA - Mortgage Bankers Association of America. The Market Index covers all mortgage applications during the week. This includes all conventional and government applications, all fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs), all adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), whether for a purchase or to refinance.
MBA - Mortgage Bankers Association of America. The Refinance Index covers all mortgage applications to refinance an existing mortgage. It is the best overall gauge of mortgage refinancing activity. The Refinance Index includes conventional and government refinances, regardless of product (FRM or ARM) or coupon rate refinanced into or out of.Seasonal factors are less significant in refinances than in home sales, however holiday effects are considerable.
MBA - Mortgage Bankers Association of America. The Purchase Index includes all mortgages applications for the purchase of a single-family home. It covers the entire market, both conventional and government loans, and all products. The Purchase Index has proven to be a reliable indicator of impending home sales.
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of change in the general level of prices of goods and services bought by households over a specified period of time. It compares a household's cost for a specific basket of finished goods and services with the cost of the same basket during an earlier benchmark period.
The consumer price index is used as a measurement of inflation and is a key economic figure. Likely impact:
1) Interest Rates: Larger-than-expected quarterly increase in price inflation or increasing trend is considered inflationary; this will cause bond prices to drop and yields and interest rates to rise.
2) Stock Prices: Higher than expected price inflation is bearish on the stock market as higher inflation will lead to higher interest rates.
3) Exchange Rates: High inflation has an uncertain effect. It would lead to depreciation as higher prices mean lower competitiveness. Conversely, higher inflation causes higher interest rates and a tighter monetary policy that leads to an appreciation.
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of change in the general level of prices of goods and services bought by households over a specified period of time. It compares a household's cost for a specific basket of finished goods and services with the cost of the same basket during an earlier benchmark period.
The consumer price index is used as a measurement of inflation and is a key economic figure. Likely impact:
1) Interest Rates: Larger-than-expected quarterly increase in price inflation or increasing trend is considered inflationary; this will cause bond prices to drop and yields and interest rates to rise.
2) Stock Prices: Higher than expected price inflation is bearish on the stock market as higher inflation will lead to higher interest rates.
3) Exchange Rates: High inflation has an uncertain effect. It would lead to depreciation as higher prices mean lower competitiveness. Conversely, higher inflation causes higher interest rates and a tighter monetary policy that leads to an appreciation.
The Autumn Statement of the British Government, also known as the "mini-budget", is one of the two statements HM Treasury makes each year to Parliament upon publication of economic forecasts. It usually involves speeches in the House of Commons by the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Core Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, excluding transportation items. Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of ordering trends. A higher reading indicates increased manufacturing activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Corporate Profits measures the change in the total value of profits earned by corporations. This data is released quarterly, around 55 days after the quarter ends.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.
Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Building Permits is a report closely watched by economists and investors alike. Since all related factors associated with the construction of a building are important economic activities (for example, financing and employment), the building permit report can give a major hint as to the state of the economy in the near future. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative.
Real Consumer Spending measures the inflation adjusted amount of money spent by households in the US economy.
The spending includes durables, such as washing machines, and non durables, such as food. It is also known as consumption, and is measured monthly.
John Maynard Keynes, the famous British economist, considered consumer spending to be the most important determinant of short-term demand in an economy.
A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative.
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
As the week to week numbers might be very volatile, the four week moving average smooths the weekly data and used for the initial jobless claims metric
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Manufacturers new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircrafts. Nondefense capital goods include among other things: small arms; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; turbines, generators and other power transmission equipment; electronic computers; communications equipment; heavy duty trucks; office and institutional furniture; and medical materials and supplies.
The Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories, and Orders survey provides broad- based, monthly statistical data on economic conditions in the domestic manufacturing sector.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments is the net current-production income of organizations treated as corporations in the NIPA´s. These organizations consist of all entities required to file Federal corporate tax returns, including mutual financial institutions and cooperatives subject to Federal income tax; private noninsured pension funds; nonprofit institutions that primarily serve business; Federal Reserve banks; and federally sponsored credit agencies. With several differences, this income is measured as receipts less expenses as defined in Federal tax law. Among these differences: Receipts exclude capital gains and dividends received, expenses exclude depletion and capital losses and losses resulting from bad debts, inventory withdrawals are valued at replacement cost, and depreciation is on a consistent accounting basis and is valued at replacement cost using depreciation profiles based on empirical evidence on used-asset prices that generally suggest a geometric pattern of price declines. The taxes are measured on an accrual basis, net of applicable tax credits. Profits after tax is profits before tax less profits tax liability.It consists of dividends and undistributed corporate profits.Dividends is payments in cash or other assets, excluding the corporations´ own stock, that are made by corporations located in the U.S & abroad to stockholders who are U.S. residents.
New orders measure the value of orders received in a given period of time. They are legally binding contracts between a consumer and a producer for delivering goods and services. New orders indicate future industrial output and production requirements.The Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey provides broad-based, monthly statistical data on economic conditions in the domestic manufacturing sector. There are 89 separately tabulated industry categories in the M3 survey. These categories are groupings of the 473 manufacturing industries as defined in the 1997 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Manual. The monthly M3 estimates are based on information obtained from most manufacturing companies with $500 million or more in annual shipments. In order to strengthen the sample coverage in individual industry categories, the survey includes selected smaller companies. Value of Shipments - The value of shipments data in the M3 survey represents net selling values, f.o.b. plant, after discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges and excise taxes.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) determines the economic health of the manufacturing sector in Chicago region.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing sector; a reading below indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI can be of some help in forecasting the ISM manufacturing PMI.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
New Home Sales measures the annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month. This report tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Personal Spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all spending by consumers. Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. However, this report tends to have a mild impact, as government data on retail sales is released about two weeks earlier.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Wholesale Inventories measures the change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
New Home Sales measures the change in percenatge of the new home sales, A new home sale is considered to be any deposit or contract signing either in the year the house was built or the year after it was built. A strong number would indicate a strong housing activity, and therefore a strong economy. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative
The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.
If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.
If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Storage report measures the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week.
While this is a U.S. indicator it tends to have a greater impact on the Canadian dollar, due to Canada's sizable energy sector.
If the increase in natural gas inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for natural gas prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.
If the increase in natural gas is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for natural gas prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.
Gasoline Inventories measures the change in the number of barrels of commercial gasoline held in inventory by commercial firms during the reported week. The data influences the price of gasoline products which affects inflation.
The data has no consistent effect, there are both inflationary and growth implications.
The Energy Information Administration reports inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks. The figure shows how much oil and product is available in storage. The indicator gives an overview of US petroleum demand.
Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in storage at the Cushing, Oklahoma during the past week. Storage levels at Cushing are important because it serves as the delivery point for the U.S. crude oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate.
The Russian Industrial Production measures the change in the total outputs of the Russian factories, mines, and utilities.
It gives us a good indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. It can be a leading indicator of manufacturing employment, average earnings, and personal income.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the RUB,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the RUB.
Philip R. Lane, member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, is set to speak. His speeches often contain indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.
A monthly report by the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank that tracks economic activity in the 7th district, which is comprised of Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin. The index is useful in tracking economic growth and identifying potential inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the rate on the Treasury Bill auctioned.
U.S. Treasury Bills have maturities of a few days to one year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Bill represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bill for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the rate on the Treasury Bill auctioned.U.S. Treasury Bills have maturities of a few days to one year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Bill represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bill for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid. Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde (November 2019 - October 2027) is to speak. As head of the ECB, which sets short term interest rates, she has a major influence over the value of the euro. Traders watch her speeches closely as they are often used to drop subtle hints regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts.
Her comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
The indicator shows the amount of capital flows that is directed to the country by foreign investors. Capital flows are essential for developing and emerging markets. They contribute to enhancing investments and financing current account deficits.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the BRL , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the BRL.
The figures displayed in the calendar represent the yield on the Treasury Note auctioned.
U.S. Treasury Notes have maturities of two to ten years. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Note represents the return an investor will receive by holding the note for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.
Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.
The Baker Hughes rig count is an important business barometer for the oil drilling industry. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry.
The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for oil products.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book is a report on current economic conditions in each of the 12 Federal districts in the U.S.
It gives a picture of economic trends and challenges in the U.S. It is released 8 times a year, 2 weeks before each Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The report is used by the FOMC in their decision on short-term interest rates.
An optimistic outlook should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a pessimistic outlook should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the ARS, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the ARS.
Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks is the amount of money that depository institutions maintain in their accounts at their regional Federal Reserve Banks.
The Fed balance sheet is a statement listing the assets and liabilities of the Federal Reserve System. Details of the Fed's balance sheet are disclosed by the Fed in a weekly report called "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances."
Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level in New Zealand, excluding automobiles and gas stations. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered a pace indicator for New Zealand's economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
Retail sales data represents total consumer purchase from retail stores. It provides valuable information about consumer spending which makes up the consumption part of GDP. The most volatile components like autos, gas prices andfood prices are often removed from the report to show more underlying demand patterns as changes in sales in these categories are frequently a result of price changes. It is not adjusted for inflation. Spending on services is not included. Rising retail sales indicate stronger economic growth. However, if theincrease is larger than forecast, it may be inflationary.
