The Economic and Fiscal Updates provide a detailed statement of the Government's financial position including updated economic and fiscal forecasts, analysis of the fiscal position and a summary of specific fiscal risks. These forecasts are published twice each year: The Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) is published with other Budget documents in May of each year, and the Half-Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) is produced in December.
The Treasury produces forecasts of the New Zealand economy and of the financial position of the Government of New Zealand at various times during the year for publication in Economic and Fiscal Updates: Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) and Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU).
The Treasury produces forecasts of the New Zealand economy and of the financial position of the Government of New Zealand at various times during the year for publication in Economic and Fiscal Updates: Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) and Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU).
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.
The survey covers transport & communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing & IT and hotels & restaurants. Each response received is weighted according to the size of the company to which the questionnaire refers & the contribution to total service sector output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs.This therefore ensures that replies from larger companies have a greater impact on the final index numbers than replies from small companies.The results are presented by question asked, showing the % of respondents reporting an improvement, deterioration or no-change since the previous month.From these %, an index is derived such that a level of
50.0 signals no-change since the previous month.Above 50.0 signals an increase (or improvement),below 50.0 a decrease(or deterioration).The greater the divergence from 50.0, the greater the rate of change signaled.
Data is an estimate of New Zealand Government securities held on behalf of non-residents. Government bonds include the total of all Government bonds and inflation indexed bonds. Treasury bills include the total of all Treasury bills.The proportion held for non-residents is calculated from the amount of bonds in the market. The bonds in the market do not include bonds held by Reserve Bank of New Zealand or by the Earthquake Commission. The survey seeks to identify the nominal amount of New Zealand Government securities held on behalf of non-residents. Since March 1994 this includes any securities held under repurchase agreement (repos). Repurchase agreements (repos): Arrangements under which one institution sells securities at a specified price to another, together with an agreement that they, or similar securities, will be purchased back at a fixed price on a specified future date. When a New Zealand institution acquires securities through repos, or transactions that replicate repos, they should be reported.
Monetary aggregates, known also as "money supply", is the quantity of currency available within the economy to purchase goods and services. Depending on the degree of liquidity chosen to define an asset as money, various monetary aggregates are distinguished: M0, M1, M2, M3, M4, etc. Not all of them are used by every country. Note that methodology of calculating money supply varies between countries. M2 is a monetary aggregate that includes all physical currency circulating in the economy (banknotes and coins), operational deposits in central bank, money in current accounts, saving accounts, money market deposits and small certificates of deposit. Excess money supply growth potentially can cause inflation and generate fears that the government may tighten money growth by allowing the interest rates to rise which in turn, lowers future prices. M2 = Currency in circulation + demand deposits (private sector) + time and savings deposits (private sector).
M3 Money Supply measures the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks. An increasing supply of money leads to additional spending, which in turn leads to inflation.
The Indian HSBC Services PMI is compiled by questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in around 350 private service sector companies. The panel has been carefully selected to accurately replicate the true structure of the services economy. Index and the Services Business Activity Index, and is based on original survey data collected from a representative panel of over 800 companies based in the Indian manufacturing and service sectors. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the INR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the INR.
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a composite indicator designed to provide an overall view of activity in the manufacturing sector and acts as an leading indicator for the whole economy. The PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for the following five indicators and their weight: New orders - 0.3, Output - 0.25 , Employment - 0.2, Suppliers delivery times - 0.15 and Stock of items purchased - 0.1 with the Delivery times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. When PMI is below 50.0 this indicates that the manufacturing economy is declining and a value above 50.0 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing economy. The individual survey indexes have been seasonally adjusted using the US Bureau of Census X-11 programme. The seasonally adjusted series are then used to calculate the seasonally adjusted PMI. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the INR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the INR.
The Average Earnings Index measures change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. The Average Earnings figure gives us a good indication of personal income growth during the given month.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the U.K. during the reported month. A rising trend indicates weakness in the labor market, which has a trickle-down effect on consumer spending and economic growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP, while lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous three months.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.
The Average Earnings Index is an indicator of inflationary pressures emanating from the labour market. The effect of a higher or lower figure than expected can be both bullish or bearish.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.
Producer Price Index (PPI) measures a change in the prices of goods and services, over a span of time, either as they leave their place of production oras they enter the production process. PPI measures a change in the prices received by domestic producers for their outputs or the change in the prices paid by domestic producers for their intermediate inputs. Inflation at this producer level often gets passed through to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, inflationary consequences in coming months can be anticipated.Inflation at this producer level often gets passed through to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, inflationary consequences in coming months can be anticipated.
Producer Price Index (PPI) measures a change in the prices of goods and services, over a span of time, either as they leave their place of production oras they enter the production process. PPI measures a change in the prices received by domestic producers for their outputs or the change in the prices paid by domestic producers for their intermediate inputs. Inflation at this producer level often gets passed through to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, inflationary consequences in coming months can be anticipated.Inflation at this producer level often gets passed through to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, inflationary consequences in coming months can be anticipated.
The French Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The French Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector.
The report is based on surveys of over 300 business executives in private sector services companies.
Data is usually released on the third working day of each month.Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs.
Replies from larger companies have a greater impact on the final index numbers than those from small companies. Results are presented by question asked, showing the percentage of respondents reporting an improvement, deterioration or no change since the previous month.From these percentages, an index is derived: a level of 50.0 signals no change since the previous month, above 50.0 signals an increase (or improvement), below 50.0 a decrease (or contraction).
Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The PMI monthly Composite Reports on Manufacturing and Services are based on surveys of over 300 business executives in private sector manufacturing companies and also 300 private sector services companies.Data is usually released on the third working day of each month.Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Replies from larger companies have a greater impact on the final index numbers than those from small companies.Results are presented by question asked, showing the percentage of respondents reporting an improvement, deterioration or no change since the previous month.From these percentages, an index is derived: a level of 50.0 signals no change since the previous month, above 50.0 signals an increase (or improvement), below 50.0 a decrease (or contraction).A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The German Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector.
The report is based on surveys of over 300 business executives in private sector services companies.
Data is usually released on the third working day of each month.Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs.
Replies from larger companies have a greater impact on the final index numbers than those from small companies. Results are presented by question asked, showing the percentage of respondents reporting an improvement, deterioration or no change since the previous month.From these percentages, an index is derived: a level of 50.0 signals no change since the previous month, above 50.0 signals an increase (or improvement), below 50.0 a decrease (or contraction).
Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the reported month. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negitive/bearish for the HKD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the HKD.
The PMI monthly Composite Reports on Manufacturing and Services are based on surveys of over 300 business executives in private sector manufacturing companies and also 300 private sector services companies. Data is usually released on the third working day of each month. Each response is weighted
according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Replies from larger companies have a greater impact on the final index numbers than those from small companies. Results are presented by question asked, showing the percentage of respondents reporting an improvement, deterioration or no change since the previous month. From these percentages, an index is derived: a level of 50.0 signals no change since the previous month, above 50.0 signals an increase (or improvement), below 50.0 a decrease.
The Italian Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods
and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Euro-zone Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector.
The report is based on surveys of about 600 business executives in private sector services companies.
Data is usually released on the third working day of each month.Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs.
Replies from larger companies have a greater impact on the final index numbers than those from small companies. Results are presented by question asked, showing the percentage of respondents reporting an improvement, deterioration or no change since the previous month.From these percentages, an index is derived: a level of 50.0 signals no change since the previous month, above 50.0 signals an increase (or improvement), below 50.0 a decrease (or contraction).
Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Italian Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods
and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, is the same as CPI, but with a joint basket of products for all Eurozone member countries. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, is the same as CPI, but with a joint basket of products for all Eurozone member countries. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.
The PMI monthly Composite Reports on Manufacturing and Services are based on surveys of over 300 business executives in private sector manufacturing companies and also 300 private sector services companies. Data is usually released on the third working day of each month. Each response is weighted
according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Replies from larger companies have a greater impact on the final index numbers than those from small companies. Results are presented by question asked, showing the percentage of respondents reporting an improvement, deterioration or no change since the previous month. From these percentages, an index is derived: a level of 50.0 signals no change since the previous month, above 50.0 signals an increase (or improvement), below 50.0 a decrease (or contraction).
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
The Composite PMI Index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the both sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
The German Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment Index gauges the six-month economic outlook. A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Italian Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment Index rates the relative six-month economic outlook for the euro zone. On the index, a level above zero indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. It is a leading indicator of economic health. The reading is compiled from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods sand services, from and to Eu countries, over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
This survey summarizes the net percentage of positive and negative responses regarding the expectations for economic growth in the next 6 months, as given by financial analysts from banks, insurance companies and large industrial enterprises. For example, if 50% believe that the economic situation will improve and 20% believe it will get worse, the result will be +30.
The survey deals with the markets of Germany, the USA, Japan, Great Britain, France, Italy and other EU countries.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the Euro, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the Euro.
Gross National Product and Gross Domestic Product is the total value of the finished goods and services produced in the economy. It is not a precise measure of national economic well-being but expressed in volume (adjusted for inflation). It is the closest single number we have got to such a measure. It is the sum of final expenditures; Export of goods and services, Imports of goods and services, Private Consumption, Government Consumption, Gross Fixed Capital Formation and Increases/Decreases(-) in stocksA higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the ILS, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the ILS.
Inflation Expectations measures the percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change by during the next 12 months. The indicator is compiled from a survey of about 2,000 consumers. The Bank of England produces this survey quarterly in conjunction with GfK.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the ILS , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the ILS.
The official reserve assets are assets denominated in foreign currency, readily available to and controlled by monetary authorities for meeting balance of payments financing needs, intervening in exchange markets to affect the currency exchange rate, and for other related purposes (such as maintaining confidence in the currency and the economy, and serving as a basis for foreign borrowing). They present a very comprehensive picture on a monthly basis of stocks at market price, transactions, foreign exchange and market revaluations and other changes in volume.
Monetary aggregates, known also as "money supply", is the quantity of currency available within the economy to purchase goods and services. Depending on the degree of liquidity chosen to define an asset as money, various monetary aggregates are distinguished: M0, M1, M2, M3, M4, etc. Not all of them are used by every country. Note that methodology of calculating money supply varies between countries. M2 is a monetary aggregate that includes all physical currency circulating in the economy (banknotes and coins), operational deposits in central bank, money in current accounts, saving accounts, money market deposits and small certificates of deposit. Excess money supply growth potentially can cause inflation and generate fears that the government may tighten money growth by allowing the interest rates to rise which in turn, lowers future prices. M2 = Currency in circulation + demand deposits (private sector) + time and savings deposits (private sector).
Measures the weighted-average price of 9 dairy products sold at auction every 2 weeks. It is viewed as a leading indicator of New Zealand's trade balance because rising commodity prices boost export income. The dairy industry is New Zealand's biggest export earner, accounting for more than 29% by value of the country's exports.
Measures the weighted-average price of 9 dairy products sold at auction every 2 weeks. It is viewed as a leading indicator of New Zealand's trade balance because rising commodity prices boost export income. The dairy industry is New Zealand's biggest export earner, accounting for more than 29% by value of the country's exports.
The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of change in the general level of prices of goods and services bought by households over a specified period of time. It compares a household's cost for a specific basket of finished goods and services with the cost of the same basket during an earlier benchmark period. The consumer price index is used as a measurement of inflation and is a key economic figure. Likely impact:
1) Interest Rates: Larger-than-expected quarterly increase in price inflation or increasing trend is considered inflationary; this will cause bond prices to drop and yields and interest rates to rise.
2) Stock Prices: Higher than expected price inflation is bearish on the stock market as higher inflation will lead to higher interest rates.
3) Exchange Rates: High inflation has an uncertain effect. It would lead to depreciation as higher prices mean lower competitiveness. Conversely, higher inflation causes higher interest rates and a tighter monetary policy that leads to an appreciation.
The ADP weekly report provides the change in private sector employment, offering the most current view of the labor market based on ADP's fine-grained, high-frequency data. Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America's largest payrolls provider, as the harbringer of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of Nonfarm Payrolls.
This data is released by Automatic Data Processing Inc, provides a four-week moving average of the latest total private-employment change in the US. Generally, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is simulative of economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Average Hourly Earnings measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, not including the agricultural sector.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The Import Price Index measures the change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Average Weekly Hours (also known as Average Workweek) measures the average number of hours worked by employees on non-farm payrolls.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Private Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of total number of paid U.S. workers of any business, excluding general government employees, private household employees, employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals and farm employees.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Building Permits is a report closely watched by economists and investors alike. Since all related factors associated with the construction of a building are important economic activities (for example, financing and employment), the building permit report can give a major hint as to the state of the economy in the near future. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative.
Export price tracks price changes of U.S. export goods. The figure is used to determine whether a change in the headline Export figure is representative of an increase of goods sold to foreign nations or just an increase in the price of export goods. United States exports account for approximately a tenth of the nation’s GDP. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index from either the previous month or year. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative.
Housing Starts measures the change in the number of new constructions underway. The construction industry is one of the first to go into a recession when the economy declines but also to recover as conditions improve. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative
Retail sales data represents total consumer purchase from retail stores. It provides valuable information about consumer spending which makes up the consumption part of GDP. The most volatile components like autos, gas prices andfood prices are often removed from the report to show more underlying demand patterns as changes in sales in these categories are frequently a result of price changes. It is not adjusted for inflation. Spending on services is not included. Rising retail sales indicate stronger economic growth. However, if theincrease is larger than forecast, it may be inflationary.
Employment data, except those for the Federal Government, refer to persons on establishment payrolls who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. For Federal Government establishments, employment figures represent the number of persons who occupied positions on the last day of the calendar month. Intermittent workers are counted if they performed any service during the month.The data exclude proprietors, the self-employed, unpaid volunteer or family workers, farm workers, and domestic workers. Salaried officers of
corporations are included. Government employment covers only civilian employees; military personnel are excluded. Employees of the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency also are excluded.Persons on establishment payrolls who are on paid sick leave (when pay is received directly from the firm), on paid holiday, on paid vacation, or work during a part of the pay period even though they are unemployed or on strike during the rest of the period are counted as employed. Not counted as employed are persons who are on layoff, on leave without pay, on strike for the entire period, or who were hired but have not yet reported during
the period.
In a company, payroll is the sum of all financial records of salaries for an employee, wages, bonuses and deductions. In accounting, payroll refers to the amount paid to employees for services they provided during a certain period of time. Payroll plays a major role in a company for several reasons. From an accounting point of view, payroll is crucial because payroll and payroll taxes considerably affect the net income of most companies and they are subject to laws and regulations (e.g. in the US payroll is subject to federal and state regulations). From an ethics in business viewpoint payroll is a critical department as employees are responsive to payroll errors and irregularities: good employee morale requires payroll to be paid timely and accurately. The primary mission of the payroll department is to ensure that all employees are paid accurately and timely with the correct withholdings and deductions, and to ensure the withholdings and deductions are remitted in a timely manner. This includes salary payments, tax withholdings, and deductions from a paycheck.
The participation rate is an important indicator of the supply of labor. It measures the share of the working-age population either working or looking for work. The number of people who are no longer actively searching for work would not be included in the participation rate.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. The figure also includes all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.
Retail Sales measure the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The Redbook Index is a sales-weighted of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The Service PMI release is published monthly by Markit Economics. The data are based on surveys of over 400 executives in private sector service companies. The surveys cover transport and communication, financial intermediaries, business and personal services, computing & IT, hotels and restaurants.
An index level of 50 denotes no change since the previous month, while a level above 50 signals an improvement, and below 50 indicates a deterioration.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.
Business Inventories measures the change in the worth of unsold goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. A high reading can indicate a lack of consumer demand.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.
Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Tiff Macklem (June 2020 - June 2027) will speak. As head of the BOC's Governing Council, which controls key short-term interest rates, Macklem has more influence over the Canadian dollar's value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements for clues regarding future monetary policy.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the ARS, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the ARS.
The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index measures the change in the level of consumer confidence in economic activity.
On the index, a level above 100.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism.
The data is compiled from a survey of about 1,200 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for ""non-commercial"" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for ""non-commercial"" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for ""non-commercial"" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.
The Banco de Chile (Bank of Chile) Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CLP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CLP.
The American Petroleum Institute reports inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks. The figure shows how much oil and product is available in storage.The indicator gives an overview of US petroleum demand.
If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.
If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.
The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports the data can have a sizable affect on the NZD.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute (MI) Leading Index is a composite index based on nine economic indicators, which is designed to predict the direction of the economy.The data is compiled from economic indicators related to consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads. The report tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
Core Machinery Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders placed with machine manufacturers, excluding ships and utilities. It is a key indicator of investment and a leading indicator of manufacturing production.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY.
This Exports number provides the total US dollar amount of merchandise exports on an f.o.b. (free on board) basis.. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the JPY, while a lower than expected number as negative
An import is any good or service brought into one country from another country in a legitimate fashion, typically for use in trade. Import goods or services are provided to domestic consumers by foreign producers. A lower than expected number should be taken as positive to the JPY while a higher than expected number as negative
New orders measure the value of orders received in a given period of time. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the JPY, while a lower than expected number as negative.
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY Anyways.
