Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monthly rate statement contains the outcome of bank's interest rate decision and discusses the economic conditions that influenced the decision. It can also give investors clues to the outcome of future decisions.
A more dovish than expected statement could be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD, while a more hawkish than expected statement could be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD.
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of change in the general level of prices of goods and services bought by households over a specified period of time. It compares a household's cost for a specific basket of finished goods and services with the cost of the same basket during an earlier benchmark period. The consumer price index is used as a measurement of inflation and is a key economic figure. Likely impact: 1) Interest Rates: Larger-than-expected quarterly increase in price inflation or increasing trend is considered inflationary; this will cause bond prices to drop and yields and interest rates to rise. 2) Stock Prices: Higher than expected price inflation is bearish on the stock market as higher inflation will lead to higher interest rates. 3) Exchange Rates: High inflation has an uncertain effect. It would lead to depreciation as higher prices mean lower competitiveness. Conversely, higher inflation causes higher interest rates and a tighter monetary policy that leads to an appreciation.
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of change in the general level of prices of goods and services bought by households over a specified period of time. It compares a household's cost for a specific basket of finished goods and services with the cost of the same basket during an earlier benchmark period. The consumer price index is used as a measurement of inflation and is a key economic figure. Likely impact: 1) Interest Rates: Larger-than-expected quarterly increase in price inflation or increasing trend is considered inflationary; this will cause bond prices to drop and yields and interest rates to rise. 2) Stock Prices: Higher than expected price inflation is bearish on the stock market as higher inflation will lead to higher interest rates. 3) Exchange Rates: High inflation has an uncertain effect. It would lead to depreciation as higher prices mean lower competitiveness. Conversely, higher inflation causes higher interest rates and a tighter monetary policy that leads to an appreciation.
The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) Consumer Climate Index measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. On the index, a level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is designed to monitor changes in prices of items at the first important commercial transactions. Producer Price Index (PPI) measures a change in the prices of goods and services, over a span of time, either as they leave their place of production or as they enter the production process. PPI measures a change in the prices received by domestic producers for their outputs or the change in the prices paid by domestic producers for their intermediate inputs.
Commodity Prices measures the change in the selling price of exported commodities.
The commodity sector accounts for over half of Australia's export income.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
The French Government Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the government's income and expenditure for the year-to-date. A negative number indicates a budget deficit, while a positive number indicates a surplus.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Consumers Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of price change of goods and services purchased by households. It measures changes in the average level of prices over a period of time with a given starting point or base period which is usually taken as 100. the CPI can be used to compare current period consumer prices with those in the base period.Consumer Price index is the most frequently used indicator of inflation and reflect changes in the cost of acquiring a fixed basket of goods and services by the average consumer. The weights are usually derived from household expenditure surveys. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the TRY , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the TRY.
Producer Price Index (PPI) measures a change in the prices of goods and services, over a span of time, either as they leave their place of production or as they enter the production process. PPI measures a change in the prices received by domestic producers for their outputs or the change in the prices paid by domestic producers for their intermediate inputs. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the TRY , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the TRY.
Spanish Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Usually a rise in PPI will lead in a short time to a rise in CPI and therefore to a rising interest rates and rising currency. during recession, the producers are not able to roll over the rising cost of material to the consumer, so a rise in PPI will not be rolled over to the consumer but will lower the profitablility of the producer and will deepen the recession, that will lead to a fall in local currency.
Producer Price Index (PPI) measures a change in the prices of goods and services, over a span of time, either as they leave their place of production oras they enter the production process. PPI measures a change in the prices received by domestic producers for their outputs or the change in the prices paid by domestic producers for their intermediate inputs. Inflation at this producer level often gets passed through to the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of change in the general level of prices of goods and services bought by households over a specified period of time. It compares a household's cost for a specific basket of finished goods and services with the cost of the same basket during an earlier benchmark period.
The consumer price index is used as a measurement of inflation and is a key economic figure. Likely impact:
1) Interest Rates: Larger-than-expected quarterly increase in price inflation or increasing trend is considered inflationary; this will cause bond prices to drop and yields and interest rates to rise.
2) Stock Prices: Higher than expected price inflation is bearish on the stock market as higher inflation will lead to higher interest rates.
3) Exchange Rates: High inflation has an uncertain effect. It would lead to depreciation as higher prices mean lower competitiveness. Conversely, higher inflation causes higher interest rates and a tighter monetary policy that leads to an appreciation.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Usually a rise in PPI will lead in a short time to a rise in CPI and therefore to a rising interest rates and rising currency. during recession, the producers are not able to roll over the rising cost of material to the consumer, so a rise in PPI will not be rolled over to the consumer but will lower the profitablility of the producer and will deepen the recession, that will lead to a fall in local currency.
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the BRL, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the BRL.
Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the BRL, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the BRL.
The Johnson Redbook Index is a sales-weighted of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. By dollar value, the Index represents over 80% of the equivalent 'official' retail sales series collected and published by the US Department of Commerce.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The Redbook Index is a sales-weighted of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative.
The Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.
NAPM - National Association of Purchasing Management, New York. The purpose of the survey is to quickly assess business conditions among manufacturers and non-manufacturing firms/organizations doing business in the New York area. The survey results are compiled into three summary measures for: (1) all industries,(2) manufacturing firms, and (3) non-manufacturing establishments. The survey results are compiled as diffusion indexes, which are calculated by taking the percentage of the respondents answering higher plus one half of the percentage of respondents who answer same or no change. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The purpose of the survey is to quickly assess business conditions among firms in the New York City area. The survey results are compiled as diffusion indices – the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). A reading of 50% means no change from the prior month, great than 50% indicates a faster pace of activity, and less than 50% a slower rate.
Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. The report also includes a revision of the Durable Goods Orders data released about a week earlier as well as data new data on non-durable goods orders.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The Investor's Business Daily (IBD), TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism Index rates the relative level of economic conditions, including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook and confidence in federal economic policies. A level above 50.0 indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers, but excluding all orders related to the transportation industry. The report also includes a revision of the Durable Goods Orders data released about a week earlier as well as data new data on non-durable goods orders. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative.
New orders measure the value of orders received in a given period of time. They are legally binding contracts between a consumer and a producer for delivering goods and services. New orders indicate future industrial output and production requirements.The Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey provides broad-based, monthly statistical data on economic conditions in the domestic manufacturing sector. There are 89 separately tabulated industry categories in the M3 survey. These categories are groupings of the 473 manufacturing industries as defined in the 1997 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Manual. The monthly M3 estimates are based on information obtained from most manufacturing companies with $500 million or more in annual shipments. In order to strengthen the sample coverage in individual industry categories, the survey includes selected smaller companies. Value of Shipments - The value of shipments data in the M3 survey represents net selling values, f.o.b. plant, after discounts and allowances and excluding freight charges and excise taxes.
Measures the weighted-average price of 9 dairy products sold at auction every 2 weeks. It is viewed as a leading indicator of New Zealand's trade balance because rising commodity prices boost export income. The dairy industry is New Zealand's biggest export earner, accounting for more than 29% by value of the country's exports.
Revenue is the amount of money that is brought into a company by its business activities. In the case of government, revenue is the money received from taxation, fees, fines, inter-governmental grants or transfers, securities sales,mineral rights and resource rights, as well as any sales that are made.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the ARS, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the ARS.
The American Petroleum Institute reports inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks. The figure shows how much oil and product is available in storage.The indicator gives an overview of US petroleum demand.
If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.
If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.
Foreign exchange reserves are only the foreign currency deposits held by central banks and monetary authorities. The Bank of South Korea operates in the FX markets by buying and selling foreign currency in response to exchange rate movements. The dollars which the Bank is purchasing become part of the Bank's foreign exchange reserves.
The Australian Industry Group (AIG) Construction Index rates the relative level of business conditions among construction companies. On the index, a reading above 50 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
Employment Change measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous quarter.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD.
The target population for the Household Labour Force Survey is the civilian usually-resident non-institutionalised population aged 15 and over.
Before the June 1995 quarter the survey included a sample of individuals living in non-private dwellings such as hotels, boarding houses, tertiary hostels, and motor camps. From the June 1995 quarter onwards, the groups that are excluded from the survey sample are: residents temporarily overseas, those in non-private dwellings, retirement homes, hospitals and psychiatric institutions, prisons, penal institutions and police lock-up; members of the permanent armed forces; non-New Zealand armed forces; overseas diplomats; overseas visitors who expect to be resident in New Zealand for less than 12 months; those aged under 15 years of age; and people living on offshore islands (except for Waiheke Island).
The Australian Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector. The report is based on surveys of over 300 business executives in private sector services companies. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Replies from larger companies have a greater impact on the final index numbers than those from small companies. Results are presented by question asked, showing the percentage of respondents reporting an improvement, deterioration or no change since the previous month.From these percentages, an index is derived: a level of 50.0 signals no change since the previous month, above 50.0 signals an increase (or improvement), below 50.0 a decrease (or contraction). Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the HKD while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the HKD.
The survey covers transport & communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing & IT and hotels & restaurants. Each response received is weighted according to the size of the company to which the questionnaire refers & the contribution to total service sector output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs.This therefore ensures that replies from larger companies have a greater impact on the final index numbers than replies from small companies.The results are presented by question asked, showing the % of respondents reporting an improvement, deterioration or no-change since the previous month.From these %, an index is derived such that a level of
50.0 signals no-change since the previous month.Above 50.0 signals an increase (or improvement),below 50.0 a decrease(or deterioration).The greater the divergence from 50.0, the greater the rate of change signaled.
The ANZ Commodity Price Index measures the change in the selling price of exported commodities. Commodities exports comprise a major part of New Zealand's economy. The data also has an effect on the country's trade balance. The report is released monthly by ANZ, one of New Zealand's leading banking and financial services firms.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the PHP , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the PHP.
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the PHP , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the PHP.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the PHP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the PHP.
Exports of goods and services consist of transactions in goods and services (sales, barter, gifts or grants) from residents to non-residents. Exports free on board (f.o.b.) and imports cost insurance freight (c.i.f.) are, in general, customs statistics reported under the general trade statistics according to the recommendations of the UN International Trade Statistics.
A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the PHP, while a lower than expected number as negative.
Exports free on board (f.o.b.) and Imports cost insurance freight (c.i.f.) are, in general, customs statistics reported under the general trade statistics according to the recommendations of the UN International Trade Statistics. For some countries Imports are reported as f.o.b. instead of c.i.f. which is generally accepted. When reporting Imports as f.o.b. you will have the effect of reducing the value of Imports by the amount of the cost of insurance and freight.
A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the PHP, while a lower than expected number as negative.
The Chart Pack summarises macroeconomic and financial market trends in Australia and provides some information about developments for Australia's main trading partners.
The Chinese HSBC Services PMI is compiled by questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private service sector companies. The panel has been carefully selected to accurately replicate the true structure of the services economy. The HSBC Services PMI Index is developed for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CNY , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CNY.
The Composite PMI Index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the both sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CNY , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CNY.
